Hike Sticks

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

TSMC’s bargaining power holds because AI accelerator demand continues to exceed CoWoS capacity. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom accept higher packaging costs to secure output for 2027 product ramps rather than risk missing AI server shipments.

What it moves

Technology+0.5%
Industrials+0.2%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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