China Allocation Risk

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The CoWoS price increase intersects with very large Chinese AI-GPU order activity and limited advanced-packaging supply. Markets focus on whether scarce TSMC capacity is allocated mainly to U.S. cloud customers, Chinese buyers, or export-controlled products.

What it moves

Technology−0.2%
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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