Possible scenario
Pakistan border friction
25% Chance
Tehran concludes that some attackers are using sanctuaries or logistics routes in Pakistan's Balochistan province. Iran and Pakistan exchange accusations, but both governments have incentives to avoid a repeat of the January 2024 strike cycle.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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