Possible scenario
Contained IRGC campaign
45% Chance
The most likely path is a tougher but geographically contained Iranian security response in Sistan-Baluchestan. The IRGC Ground Forces and its Quds Base increase raids around Saravan, Rask and Mirjaveh, while Tehran avoids overt action inside Pakistan.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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