Possible scenario
Domestic unrest widens
17% Chance
Security violence intersects with unresolved anger over the 2022 Zahedan Bloody Friday crackdown. Sunni clerics, local families and Baluch activists mobilize protests, increasing pressure on provincial authorities without necessarily shifting national policy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.