Possible scenario

Policy Reassurance Rally

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.8%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Lula’s camp moves quickly to calm investors by naming a market-credible economic team, reaffirming central bank autonomy, and promising a revised fiscal framework before inauguration. After a 17.5% weekly drawdown, short-covering and bargain-hunting drive a partial rebound in Brazilian risk assets.

What it moves

Finance+1.0%
Non-Energy Materials+0.8%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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