Possible scenario

Congress Constrains Lula

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Brazil’s centrist Congress, the independent central bank, and business lobbies limit the scope of Lula’s economic agenda. Markets remain volatile, but investors begin to price a divided-government outcome rather than a full policy rupture.

What it moves

Finance+0.5%
Non-Energy Materials+0.4%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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