Pause Quickly Collapses

22%its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.0%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A major Russian attack on Ukraine’s energy grid makes the pause politically and militarily unsustainable in Kyiv. The confrontation with Washington returns, and energy markets reprice the risk of further disruption to Russian fuel output.

What it moves

Energy+1.6%
Consumer Services−0.7%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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