The stock rebounded even as CoreWeave's credit default swaps hit distress levels, pricing in an implied five year default probability of more than 60% amid a multi-day bond rout. Yields on the company's 2031 notes crossed 16%, while $1.25 billion of unsecured 2032 bonds issued in June at 9.625% traded below 80 cents on the dollar to yield over 15%. While unsecured debt sold off, CoreWeave's secured project facilities have priced lower over time, including an $8.5 billion investment grade delayed draw term loan in March at SOFR plus 2.25%, down from SOFR plus 9.62% on its first facility in 2023. In the first half of 2026, CoreWeave generated $3.7 billion in operating cash flow while spending $14.9 billion on investing activities and raising $14 billion in financing, followed by $4.2 billion in 2.875% convertible notes in September.
Analysts remain split over whether CoreWeave's $104 billion backlog and more than $25 billion in early third quarter commitments outweigh its borrowing costs. Deutsche Bank and Bank of America reiterated Buy ratings on Thursday with price targets of $150 and $140, with Deutsche Bank calling the pullback a "buying opportunity" implying 128% upside from Wednesday's close of $65.78. By contrast, Bernstein maintained an Underperform rating, calling the business "economically challenged," and short seller Kerrisdale Capital said CoreWeave generates returns below its cost of capital.