Early returns in the Texas gubernatorial race show Democrat Gina Hinojosa leading incumbent Governor Greg Abbott, with Decision Desk HQ reporting Hinojosa at 53% to Abbott’s 45.8% with about 69% of votes counted. The shift follows a collapse in the incumbent’s standing in key counties, including one where he trails by 18 points in a district Republicans won in the last two cycles. If Hinojosa secures the victory, she will be the first Democrat to hold the state’s top office since 1990, a result that Polymarket now assigns a 99% probability.
The election results have pressured data center stocks and Nasdaq futures due to Hinojosa’s proposal for a moratorium on new data center builds to protect the electrical grid. Texas accounts for roughly 25% of the U.S. data center capacity projected to come online by 2030, and Jefferies estimates that 13.3 GW of announced projects in the state could be at risk. Analysts suggest that while a halt could boost near-term cash flow for hyperscalers, AI chip suppliers such as Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom could face delayed orders for equipment.