Democratic candidates won every race in the Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday, capitalizing on a sharp decline in Republican support among Latino voters during the 2026 midterms. The GOP saw its share of the Hispanic vote drop by 14 points compared to the 2024 election in 64 majority-Latino counties, including a 25 point plunge in Hidalgo County, Texas, and a 10 point decrease in Miami-Dade, Florida. In the governor’s race, Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott by approximately 6.5 points, while Rep. Pat Fallon noted that the party’s net margin with Hispanic voters plummeted to -38 from -6.
The political swing followed frustration over high consumer prices and the Trump administration’s mass deportation drive. A survey by Honest Poll Company showed 53% of voters viewed Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s tactics as too aggressive, while pollster Frank Luntz found that economics drove 45% of Hispanic voters’ decisions compared to 15% for immigration. The movement comes as approximately 14.5 million Latinos voted nationwide, coinciding with a 19 point drop in the number of Hispanic Trump supporters who identify as MAGA since October 2025.