From todaySenate Leader John Thune Says New China Chip Export Bans Are Now Highly Probable

• 

  42%

  −1.1%

  Broad Defense Bill Ban

  Congress moves from rhetoric to legislation by attaching China AI-chip restrictions to the defense authorization bill. Bipartisan support in both chambers makes a broad ban the single most likely path, especially after John Thune signals that export curbs are highly probable.

  Technology −2.0% · Industrials −0.3%

• 

  30%

  −0.4%

  Narrow Licensing Compromise

  Lawmakers settle on a compromise that tightens Commerce Department licensing without imposing a blanket statutory ban. This outcome reflects national-security pressure while preserving some executive flexibility and limited commercial sales.

  Technology −0.7%

• 

  18%

  +0.6%

  Executive Waivers Survive

  The Trump administration persuades enough senators to preserve case-by-case licensing authority for China-bound AI chips. Congress still adds reporting and oversight, but the immediate risk of a statutory ban recedes.

  Technology +1.1%

• 

  10%

  −1.4%

  Retaliatory Escalation

  China responds to congressional action with targeted countermeasures against U.S. technology interests. The probability is lower than a U.S.-only policy outcome, but the market impact would be larger because it would imply a wider tech-trade confrontation.

  Technology −2.7% · Non-Energy Materials +0.7% · Industrials −0.4%