Retaliatory Escalation

its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.4%on the S&P 500, if it happens

China responds to congressional action with targeted countermeasures against U.S. technology interests. The probability is lower than a U.S.-only policy outcome, but the market impact would be larger because it would imply a wider tech-trade confrontation.

What it moves

Technology−2.7%
Non-Energy Materials+0.7%
Industrials−0.4%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Retaliatory Escalation

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