Possible scenario
Hegseth Block Holds
20% Chance
The Defense Department's hold on Patriot missiles survives the 48-hour window, either because of U.S. stockpile concerns or political leverage around the peace plan. Starlink is easier to patch than Patriots, so the communications outcome becomes the key differentiator.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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