Possible scenario
Aid Bridge Approved
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is a narrow U.S. administrative fix that lets Zelenskyy show progress within 48 hours without settling the larger peace-track dispute. Washington can bridge Starlink funding and release or reprogram some Patriot-related support while envoys test Moscow's response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Telecommunications +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.