Possible scenario
Diplomacy Delays Decision
27% Chance
U.S. envoys use the Oct. 21 Moscow visit to hold back a definitive answer on Patriots while keeping Starlink negotiations alive. This outcome fits a White House effort to maintain leverage over both Kyiv and Moscow without abruptly cutting support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Tickers
- RTX-0.1%
- -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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