Possible scenario
Truce Revived
25% Chance
Washington pushes both governments back toward a limited energy-infrastructure ceasefire after the initial five-day truce collapses. Russia and Ukraine could accept a narrow pause if it preserves political flexibility and reduces pressure on winter energy systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Utilities +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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