Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
20% Chance
Moscow could respond to the Gazprom strike with a heavier winter campaign against Ukrainian gas storage, thermal plants, substations, and port infrastructure. This would heighten geopolitical risk without necessarily causing a systemic market shock unless NATO territory or major export routes are affected.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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