Possible scenario
Energy War Continues
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of calibrated attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, paired with Russian strikes on Ukrainian power and heating assets. Both sides have incentives to damage wartime energy revenue and logistics while avoiding a direct NATO-Russia escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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