Contained Maritime Campaign

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Iran-aligned forces continue selective tanker harassment near Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz, but avoid a full closure of the waterway. The death of a seafarer raises insurance costs and naval alert levels, yet most crude and LNG cargoes keep moving under heightened risk protocols.

What it moves

Consumer Services−0.7%
Energy+0.5%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Keeping an eye on this scenario?