SagaCommoditiesWar
What it is
Naval and Yemeni forces are responding to threats around Bab el-Mandeb as Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping security remains contested.
Overview
Belgian officials earlier said a French warship neutralized a ballistic projectile near the Belgian vessel Primula in Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces announced gains around Kahbub, but later assessments said the heights were only partly recovered. Fighting in Lahij remains volatile as government-aligned forces said they halted a Houthi push, while Ansarallah later claimed Jabal Kharaz and Al-Kharaz camp.
How it could play out
Why it matters
The security picture affects naval deployments, commercial shipping, insurers, Red Sea logistics and governments seeking to keep a strategic chokepoint open.
Key details
• The projectile was reported near the Belgian vessel Primula. • Ansarallah claimed control of Al Fassayah on Nov 11. • Reports said Houthi advances could isolate up to 100,000 government-aligned troops. • Ansarallah claimed Jabal Kharaz and Al-Kharaz camp on Nov 14.
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How it could play out
Saga, how it could play out
SagaBab el-Mandeb projectile interceptions and Red Sea shipping security
Ansarallah completes the Lahj push and blocks the remaining escape routes for Saudi-backed units near Bab al-Mandeb. This is the base case because the prior capture of the Red Sea coast and the cut to the Taiz-Al-Misrakh highway have already narrowed coalition logistics.
Saudi-backed forces use armor, drones, and air support to keep the Bab al-Mandeb pocket from being sealed. This remains plausible because Riyadh and allied Yemeni factions have strong incentives to prevent Ansarallah from consolidating control over the strait approaches.
Omani and UN intermediaries press Ansarallah, Riyadh, and local Yemeni factions toward a limited battlefield pause. This is less likely than continued fighting, but both sides may accept a tactical pause to exchange prisoners, evacuate wounded, or avoid a costly battle near the strait.
The battle around Bab al-Mandeb escalates beyond the immediate ground offensive, drawing in Saudi, Emirati, U.S., or U.K. military assets more directly. This is a lower-probability scenario, but the strategic importance of the chokepoint makes miscalculation possible.
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Prediction markets
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31
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