Conflict Widens

its chance, of the story’s futures

−1.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The battle around Bab al-Mandeb escalates beyond the immediate ground offensive, drawing in Saudi, Emirati, U.S., or U.K. military assets more directly. This is a lower-probability scenario, but the strategic importance of the chokepoint makes miscalculation possible.

What it moves

Energy+2.6%
Consumer Cyclicals−1.0%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Conflict Widens

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