From todayCuban President Vows to Repel Potential U.S. Military Attack

• 

  38%

  −1.4%

  Limited U.S. Strikes

  The most likely kinetic path is a short U.S. campaign against Cuban air-defense, naval, radar, and command facilities rather than a full invasion. Washington would frame the operation as limited coercion after fuel seizures, sanctions, and force deployments failed to change Havana’s posture.

  Energy +2.5% · Consumer Services −2.5% · Industrials +2.0%

• 

  27%

  −0.4%

  Blockade Without Strikes

  Washington stops short of immediate airstrikes and instead intensifies coercion through a maritime exclusion zone, more fuel seizures, cyber actions, and expanded Treasury sanctions. Havana denounces the move as an act of war but avoids direct military engagement in the first several days.

  Consumer Services −0.8% · Industrials +0.7% · Energy +0.6%

• 

  20%

  +0.6%

  Negotiated De-Escalation

  A diplomatic pause remains plausible because both governments can claim resolve without accepting the costs of a Caribbean conflict. Mexico, Canada, the Vatican, and selected Latin American governments could help arrange talks on fuel shipments, detainees, and military postures.

  Consumer Services +1.1% · Industrials −0.7% · Energy −0.7%

• 

  15%

  −2.6%

  Wider Regional Escalation

  A lower-probability but severe path involves a battlefield incident, U.S. casualties, or foreign intelligence support that turns a short coercive operation into a broader regional crisis. This would still likely remain below a global war scenario, but markets would price a sharper geopolitical shock.

  Consumer Services −4.8% · Energy +3.2% · Industrials +3.1%