Possible scenario
Powell Survives Scrutiny
40% Chance
Jonathan Powell remains National Security Adviser after ministers argue that Alicia Kearns has not produced evidence requiring his removal. The government offers procedural concessions, such as a classified briefing to senior MPs, while avoiding a full personnel change.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.