Possible scenario
Formal Inquiry Opens
20% Chance
Parliament or the Intelligence and Security Committee launches a more formal examination of the China spying prosecution, intelligence exposure in the Hanning case, and Powell's role. Powell may remain temporarily, but the centre of gravity shifts to documents, testimony, and institutional reform.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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