Possible scenario
Powell Exits Role
25% Chance
Powell resigns or is moved out after renewed scrutiny of the China espionage case and claims that national security decisions were politicised. The government frames the move as restoring confidence in the national-security machinery.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.