Possible scenario
Retaliation Broadens Conflict
16% Chance
Riyadh concludes that Iraqi promises are insufficient and moves militarily against launch sites or militia infrastructure. Even if the action is limited, it risks direct Saudi-Iraqi friction and a wider confrontation with Iran-aligned groups.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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