Possible scenario
Militias Keep Attacking
30% Chance
Iran-backed militias resist Baghdad’s deadline and continue using Iraqi territory for low-cost drone and missile attacks. Sudani lacks either the coercive capacity or political backing to impose full disarmament quickly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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