Possible scenario
Baghdad Contains Militias
42% Chance
Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani follows the Saudi visit with visible security action against launch sites in western Iraq. Baghdad avoids a full confrontation with Iran-backed factions but does enough to reduce near-term Saudi pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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