Possible scenario
Toss-Up Finish
20% Chance
The polling confirms real GOP vulnerability but not a decisive Democratic wave. Both parties enter the final stretch with plausible paths to a majority, and control of the House depends on candidate quality, turnout, and a handful of late-counted races.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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