Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
43% Chance
The internal GOP polling becomes a leading indicator that Trump’s 30% approval rating is dragging down Republican incumbents beyond the usual swing-seat universe. Democrats broaden the battlefield into Trump-won suburban, exurban, and Sun Belt districts, making a House flip the base case.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.5%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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