Possible scenario
GOP Stabilizes Map
27% Chance
Republicans treat the polling as an early-warning signal rather than a collapse. Better candidate discipline, heavy outside spending, and a modest improvement in Trump’s approval rating keep many Trump-won seats in the GOP column.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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