Possible scenario
Democrats Rebound
28% Chance
The Democratic generic-ballot advantage begins to show up more clearly in state-level gubernatorial polling. Republican leads in several YouGov races compress as Democratic Governors Association messaging links GOP nominees to Trump’s 37% approval rating.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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