Possible scenario
Managed Trade Truce
45% Chance
The tarmac welcome signals that both governments want to stabilize relations after repeated tariff and export-control flare-ups. The most likely outcome is a limited extension of the existing trade truce, with both sides avoiding immediate new penalties while leaving hard technology issues unresolved.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
- Technology +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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