Possible scenario
Protocol Without Substance
30% Chance
The historic tarmac greeting proves largely symbolic, with the leaders emphasizing dialogue but avoiding concrete concessions. This outcome is plausible because Washington and Beijing both benefit from calm optics while remaining far apart on AI chips, rare earths, Taiwan and industrial policy.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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