Possible scenario
Backlash Hardens Policy
15% Chance
The unusually deferential welcome triggers criticism from China hawks in Congress and national-security officials. Even if the summit itself remains cordial, domestic pressure could push the administration toward tougher language or narrower concessions on chips and investment screening.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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