Possible scenario
Wider energy disruption
18% Chance
A lower-probability but high-impact path is that the Yanbu strike becomes part of a broader campaign against Saudi refining, export terminals, and Red Sea shipping lanes. This would create a material oil-price shock and a more pronounced global risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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