Possible scenario
Saudi retaliation follows
25% Chance
Riyadh is likely to respond militarily if damage is visible or casualties are reported, especially after repeated Houthi attacks on Yanbu and Riyadh energy infrastructure. Retaliation remains focused on Yemen rather than Iran, keeping escalation material but bounded.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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