Possible scenario
Limited refinery disruption
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the missile strike causes localized fire damage but does not materially interrupt Saudi crude exports. Saudi Aramco has practiced rapid repair and redundancy planning after prior Yanbu and Abqaiq-style attacks, limiting the market impact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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