Possible scenario
Polish Legal Escalation
38% Chance
Poland's new findings become a domestic criminal and administrative investigation focused on former security officials, procurement channels, and NSO's handling of Polish targets' data. This is the most likely path because Donald Tusk's government has already had political incentives to revisit Pegasus use under the prior Law and Justice government.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- CLBT-1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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