Possible scenario
Israel Diplomacy Channel
20% Chance
Because NSO is an Israeli company and Pegasus exports require Israeli authorization, Poland's claims are likely to create a diplomatic track alongside legal probes. The outcome depends on whether Israel cooperates with Warsaw and EU institutions or protects its cyber-export regime.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Tickers
- CLBT-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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