Possible scenario
Threats Stay Political
38% Chance
Trump's vow remains primarily a political deterrent rather than an immediate legal act. Slotkin and Democratic allies continue to call for accountability, but no near-term indictments or pardon instruments are filed in the first days after the headline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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