Possible scenario
Institutions Push Back
22% Chance
Judges, congressional lawyers, or bipartisan institutional actors move to clarify limits on pardons for allies and any claimed self-pardon power. This scenario reduces some ambiguity over time, though the immediate news cycle remains contentious.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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