Possible scenario
Probes Move Forward
27% Chance
Prosecutors or congressional investigators move ahead despite Trump's pardon threat. The most likely route is subpoenas, interviews, or referrals rather than immediate trials, keeping the issue legally serious but still procedurally early.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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