Possible scenario
Hold Persists
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the Pentagon maintains its hold on allied Patriot transfers while legal, inventory, and reimbursement questions are reviewed. Rubio’s concession that a paid batch may not arrive gives the administration cover to slow deliveries without formally canceling Ukraine support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- -2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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