Possible scenario
Conditional Release
28% Chance
The U.S. partially reverses course after pressure from NATO capitals and Congress, allowing a limited transfer under stricter reporting and replenishment conditions. This outcome preserves the administration’s leverage while avoiding a visible collapse in Ukraine’s air-defense pipeline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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