Possible scenario
European Workaround
18% Chance
If Washington continues to restrict Patriot transfers, European governments try to compensate with non-Patriot systems, swaps, and accelerated procurement. This reduces Ukraine’s dependence on U.S.-controlled Patriot approvals but cannot immediately replace Patriot’s ballistic-missile defense role.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Tickers
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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