Possible scenario
US-Led Retaliation
20% Chance
After reviewing military options, the Trump administration joins or leads strikes against Houthi launch sites, radar and drone storage facilities. Markets initially price higher geopolitical risk but also some probability that US action suppresses further attacks.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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