Possible scenario
Energy Infrastructure Hit
27% Chance
The Houthi campaign shifts from symbolic long-range strikes toward assets tied directly to Saudi crude exports and refining. Even a temporary disruption would force traders to price a sharper supply-risk premium because Brent is already above $108.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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