Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Response
38% Chance
Saudi Arabia expands airstrikes inside Yemen and tightens air defenses around Tabuk, Riyadh, Yanbu and Jeddah, but the Houthis do not achieve a major new hit on oil infrastructure. Brent remains elevated, but markets treat the episode as a severe security shock rather than an immediate supply outage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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